Posted by
David on Thursday, November 08, 2007 3:24:04 PM
Recently Rudy Giuliani lost a Values Voter straw poll. He was not last,
but he lost nonetheless. Attendees at
the Values Voter Summit offered Giuliani an underwhelming level of support:
6.3%.When the online returns were tallied, less than 2% favored the former
mayor. While the poll was arguably not representative, the poll numbers,
combined with the importance of social conservatives in the Republican party,
raise serious questions about Giuliani's electability.
From the outset of his campaign, Rudy and his advisors have
known that social conservatives would be a troublesome constituency.
Consequently, supporters of the former mayor have argued that Giuliani's
liberal stand on social issues, a weakness in Republican primaries, will
actually be strength in the general election. In other words, the support of
socially moderate voters will make Giuliani competitive in traditionally
Democratic areas. As appealing as it sounds, his status as a second tier
candidate among social conservatives makes this assertion tenuous.
Heretofore, the Giuliani campaign has assumed that the
prospect of another President Clinton will keep most uneasy social
conservatives inside the Republican fold. The campaign is unduly optimistic. A
substantial percentage of Values Voters cast their ballots on the basis of
moral principles. These individuals view social issues in terms of right and
wrong, a fact that makes it morally impossible to support a socially liberal
candidate. Consequently, this traditionally high-turnout voting bloc could
easily stay home on Election Day, or defect to a third party. The loss of these
critical votes in a handful of key states would severely jeopardize Giuliani’s
ability to win a majority in the Electoral College.
From a strategic perspective, low turnout among social conservatives in
Republican leaning states makes moderate voters critical. For example, in 2004
George W. Bush carried Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, and Ohio by minuscule
margins. If Giuliani is to retain these states, absent social conservatives
must be replaced by the social liberals who shunned George W. Bush. Otherwise,
the Democrat nominee will carry these states. Naturally, the scenario is more
complex if the state was narrowly carried by John Kerry in 2004.
Analysts have pointed out that Rudy could win Democrat-leaning states
such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,
and New Hampshire.
A definite electoral possibility, these states do however present a serious
challenge. If the former mayor looses the support of many social conservatives,
he must offset these losses with new votes from the political center. Only then
can he search for the additional centrist votes necessary to defeat the
Democrat candidate. The question is, does the Giuliani campaign have a message
these voters will embrace? The answer is
no.
Until now, Rudy has drawn skeptical Republicans into his camp by casting
himself as a tough leader who is committed to reducing the size of government –
a fine message for the Republican primaries. But if he wins the Republican
nomination, his message will not fit the voters he most needs to impress. This
message/voter mismatch could doom his bid for the White House. In this regard
homeland security and health care reform are illustrative.
When it comes to homeland security, the former mayor has embraced the
sports witticism that the best defense is a good offense. Hence, unlike many of
the voters he needs to woo, Giuliani favors aggressive foreign policy measures
aimed at destroying terrorism abroad. Likewise, Rudy appears to have an elastic
view of Presidential authority. This belief holds that warrant-less wiretapping
and controversial top-secret interrogation techniques are useful intelligence
tools, not signs that American ideals have been compromised. Many moderate voters
will not agree.
Giuliani's ability to win the support of centrists voters will also be
hampered by concerns about health care reform. While many Americans believe
health care reform is important, the sentiment is particularly strong among
center-left voters. Democrat presidential candidates have seized the
opportunity. All of the top candidates have proposed bold plans for covering
the uninsured. In so doing, the Democrats have cast themselves as pro-change.
In comparison, the former mayor's focus on health savings accounts is,
relatively speaking, a status quo solution. Fueled by Democrat rhetoric,
centrist voters are bound to react negatively, an outcome Rudy can ill afford.
An albatross in any election year, Giuliani's social liberalism is a
greater liability in 2008 than his supporters want to admit. Not only does it
promote apathy among social conservatives, but it also increases the importance
of his polarizing message. In so doing, the former mayor could alienate the
very voters he so desperately needs, thereby undermining his electability.
Since this message/voter mismatch is nearly irrelevant until the general
election, it will be impossible to know if Pat Robertson's recent endorsement
of Rudy Giuliani will translate into conservative votes. By then it will be too
late.