Posted by
David on Sunday, December 09, 2007 11:19:13 PM
When it comes to choosing a Prom King,
popularity is overrated. A Prom King only needs to be more popular
than each of his competitors. The same is true in presidential
politics. Over the years, a handful of presidential elections have
resembled the selection of a Prom King – with each candidate backed
by a cadre of loyal supporters.
The 2008 Republican primary is no
different, and the end result could be a marginally popular
candidate: Rudy Giuliani. Nevertheless, this would not be without
precedent. The most outstanding example occurred in the Presidential
election of 1912 .
When Democrat Woodrow Wilson won the
presidency in 1912, his win was far from convincing. His two main
opponents, Theodore Roosevelt and William H. Taft, were favored by a
combined 50% of the electorate. Only 42% supported Wilson. Even so,
success in the Northeast and South, aided by a fractured opposition,
enabled Wilson to turn a tenuous plurality into a stunning victory in
the electoral college. Now more than 90 years later, Rudy Giuliani's
path to the 2008 Republican nomination bears an eerie resemblance to
Wilson's electoral triumph.
For months, poll results posted on
RealClearPolitics.com have indicated that Mayor Giuliani's strongest
support comes from Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Pacific coast
states. Since a large percentage of the Republican primary delegates
reside in these areas, his campaign is on decent footing.
Unfortunately for Giuliani, his appeal in the Republican primary is
akin to Wilson's popularity in the general election: noteworthy, but
not strong enough to garner a majority of the votes. Given this
Wilsonian reality, Rudy's campaign has adopted a big-state strategy
that seeks to capture delegates, not individual primary votes. But
the key to his success is a divided opponent.
Woodrow Wilson faced two strong
opponents in 1912; Giuliani faces four – Mike Huckabee, John
McCain, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney. However, the composition of
the race will empower the former mayor the way it benefited Wilson –
by splitting the opposition's votes. With five strong Republican
candidates currently polling above 11%, Giuliani has a chance to win
a handful of relatively early primaries that he would otherwise lose.
Not only would this provide the former mayor with vital convention
delegates, but it would also make it difficult for an otherwise
viable candidate to build the momentum necessary to challenge New
York's former mayor.
Although the aforementioned series of
events may seem unlikely, Wilson may have won the presidency because
of a similar scenario. According to Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.
Presidential Elections, candidate Wilson won 14 states with less
than 40% of the popular vote. That was the result of a three way
race. Huckabee, McCain, Thompson, and Romney will be Giuliani's
Roosevelt and Taft. Critical pundits might suggest that the election
of 1912 was an anomaly. It was, but so are presidential primaries
when they are compared to the average presidential election.
Rather than being enthralled with Rudy
Giuliani, the vast majority of Republican voters are dissatisfied
with his candidacy. Yet unless dissatisfied primary voters quickly
rally around an alternative, they can expect Rudy to capture the
Republican nomination by conquering the divided. The funny thing is,
marginally popular Prom Kings are chosen the same way. Maybe the
conservative electorate failed to learn a few important lessons in
high school.