Posted by
David on Saturday, May 24, 2008 5:35:31 PM
If, as many pundits expect, Barack Obama wins
the Democrat nomination, conventional wisdom says that he needs to balance his
presidential ticket with experience, particularly in the foreign policy arena. As
far as it goes, conventional wisdom is absolutely correct. In contrast to John
McCain, Obama is young, untested, and inexperienced – a cocktail of traits McCain
and Republicans won’t let voters forget. However, pundits are sometimes myopic.
Recent political rumors have pointed
to Virginia Senator Jim Webb and former Virginia
governor Mark Warner as possible running mates for Barack Obama. The presence
of either of these men on the Democratic ticket would pose a serious problem
for John McCain, perhaps even destroying his chances of winning the general election.
As the election of 2000 so
powerfully reminded Americans, presidential elections are about electoral maps
– not raw votes. Hence, while Barack Obama might get more popular votes with an
experienced political heavyweight as a Vice President, he might stand a better
chance of winning the electoral vote if he could pry Virginia away from the Republicans. Although
that has not happened in over 40 years, Jim Webb and Mark Warner could make it
happen.
In 2006, Virginia elected political novice Jim Webb,
thereby ousting incumbent Senator George Allen. While the war in Iraq was not
the only reason for Webb’s surprising victory (Allen made numerous blunders),
it was an important part of it. Furthermore, Senator Webb’s military experience
could go a long way to neutralizing McCain’s war-hero status. Virginia’s former Governor Mark Warner would
also be a potent Vice Presidential pick: a few years ago he left office as one
of the most popular governors in recent memory.
If Virginia’s 13 electoral votes are captured
by the Democratic candidate this fall, McCain will be a breath away from
presidential oblivion. Not surprisingly, New Mexico
and Iowa will
hold the key to victory or defeat. In 2000 Al Gore won both states by less than
one percent - combined. Likewise, George W. Bush won both states by margins
that were almost as slim in 2004. A loss in either New
Mexico or Iowa, coupled with a
loss in Virginia,
will spell the end of John McCain’s presidential ambitions.
No matter what the pundits and
political professionals contend, John McCain’s chances for victory this fall
are tenuous, largely because swing states like Virginia. Unfortunately, his political
problems are akin to heart trouble. He may feel fine, but the big one could be
around the corner. The truth is, if Barack Obama picks a popular Virginian as a
running mate, McCain may find himself in the political emergency room election
night.